What are your Iowa Caucus predictions?

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Permalink Reply by Rusty Ward on December 28, 2007 at 2:07pm

The Democratic race is up in the air. I think Hillary is most likely to win it, but both Barack and Edwards are still pretty close to neck and neck with her ... in Iowa at least. I think the Republican race is more interesting. I think Huckabee will do well in Iowa but once we get to New Hampshire we'll see him fall behind and McCain will start making a comeback.

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Permalink Reply by Policritic on December 28, 2007 at 2:36pm

Clinton, Obama, Edwards will divide up support in Iowa in that order but with no clearcut winner. This will be a setback for Clinton and muddle the race going into NH. Obama and Edwards will dog Clinton with no breakout yet on the horizon. Clinton will probably prevail n the end and this will depress Dem-leaning independents. Unfortunately, none of these candidates are well poised for the general election as none capture the center.

Huckabee will challenge Romney in Iowa but sink like a stone after that. Maybe some support in SC. In Iowa McCain will be 3rd with Giuliani 4th and Thompson 5th. Giuliani will maintain slim lead over Romney nationally going into NH but McCain will look like a serious contender after NH. My feeling is he'll win the nomination.

Long shot prediction: McCain-Lieberman ticket wins in 2008 as independent voters determine the winning ticket. Are they Republican or Independents??? They unite SW and NE as mavericks against the status quo in both parties.

What is the likelihood of this scenario in this highly volatile, unpredictable environment? No more than 15-20%, but this probably trumps all other scenarios, including Clinton ekeing out a win over Giuliani.

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Permalink Reply by Razorwire on December 28, 2007 at 7:01pm

I'd liked to wait 48 for polls that factor Pakistan but I'll push own. I think Huckabee has hurt himself in the last couple of days and I'm not sure he's ready for a ground war. But I still think he wins Iowa, but watch McCain.

I think Obama wins Iowa by a corn stark or sows ear because I do think it's a change election. But it will be so close among top three, who spins the win-place-show the best, wins the race. I think Hillary has got her game back, but her Ads feel so nightly network news: stale even for Iowa.

and the over/under Pats v Giants 36 and a half.

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Permalink Reply by Tami on January 1, 2008 at 10:50pm

I am pretty sure that Hillary is gonna continue to rock the democratic scene, cause hey, lets face it, no one is really puttting anything better on the table. She is pretty hardcore and has been around the block in DC a few times, so she totally has the right connections. I mean I think she is way wrong on her stance with Ahmadinejad...but she's got clout and years of experience under her belt

Its soooooo way harder to make any predictions on the otherside. I mean does anyone even have a lead? Guiliani gets some love for being from NYC (my hometown) and all, but our boy Huckabee is here to stay, for the moment at least. Thats my word.

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Permalink Reply by jason mitchell on January 3, 2008 at 8:49am

barack obama willcome out on top i mean better health care and no war that means cheaper gas prices

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Permalink Reply by Tami on January 4, 2008 at 1:16pm

Well, I guess you had it right Jason adn razorwire, but do you really think he'll stay on top after Iowa....that would be nuts...I totally did not think that Americanos were ready to shake things up in the white house.........this could be bananas!

what'll happen if its Obama v. Huckabee in the final election?????????

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Permalink Reply by jason mitchell on January 4, 2008 at 2:10pm

I amnot sure i live in canada so not too sure thow election works but i talked to some uninformed americans they need to wake up its 2008 who cares if hes black his platfourm is great i support him and american policies do not really affect me i live in canada but fully support obama

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Permalink Reply by Policritic on January 4, 2008 at 7:11pm

I'd like to believe this is true, but I'm not sure exactly what Obama's platform is. His political record is conventionally liberal. As far as bipartisanship goes, when the gang of 14 independent Senators peeled off to oppose a Dem-driven filibuster vs. a Repub change in Senate rules to outlaw filibusters, Mr. Obama declined to sign on for ideological reasons.
I wish I knew how Obama is going to fulfill his promises to close the divide in American partisan politics. He can't wish it so, so I'm looking for evidence he'll start talking about reconciling the real and valid preferences that differ between urban liberals and rural conservatives. I'd like to see him speak firmly against the extremists in both parties.
The most likely way he wins a general election is if the Republicans splinter with a third candidate in the race, but that doesn't create a mandate for Obama. It will be interesting and thank goodness because we need a shakeup of the status quo.

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Permalink Reply by jason mitchell on January 4, 2008 at 7:31pm

wow you have given much to think abot all the media portrays about obama in canada is healthcare and how he will improve relations with canada we have been left out in the canidian cold with bush thank you i will look up this info on the net

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Permalink Reply by Razorwire on January 4, 2008 at 11:27pm

We campaign in poetry, we govern in prose, so said the Hamlet on the Hudson, Mario Cuomo, and right he was, though he was conventionally left. Obama is a process player and part of that process is to recognize your back bencher status when something as explosive as the "Nuclear Option " threatens the half life of cloture. Think Graham of South Carolina ain't concerned about his nod to centrism. Think DeWine, and Chafee.

Wasn't Obama 's fight right then and any really watching knew Frist couldn't countdown to ten. Obama was keeping his powder dry with an eye on the prize.

Primaries are a beauty contest so you strut and sway and save the substance for the general.

Regards,
Razorwire

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Permalink Reply by jason mitchell on January 4, 2008 at 11:53pm

I do not know if obama isa backbencher he seems to take aimon hot topics such as healhtcare reform which is for everyone i think to stand up for that as your platform when everyone else will not that takes courage not a backbencher i think he should win i believe americans are tired of republicans for the next term soit will be obama he seems to be the leader of the pack.

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Permalink Reply by Razorwire on January 5, 2008 at 11:51am

I'm not using backbencher as a pejorative...I'm just noting he was a first term Senator who had an eye on the Whitehouse and the good sense to know that when push came to shove the right to filibuster would stand. He didn't need to get into that fight at that time.

Regards

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